APS elementary school stats

[Cap'n Ken]

So over in the Parenting board (for those of you who hide it) we've been enthralled (well, I have been at least) with some of the data APS has been releasing as part of this very well-handled "demographic study" that will lead to redistricting, schools closing and everybody freaking out. One of the more interesting to me has been the enrollment / geographic origin chart for elementary schools - it shows how many APS students (not total school-age population) live in each elementary district and where those kids actually go to school. Interesting and relevant to the discussion of Burgess-Peterson and other schools around here, but it's also interesting to look at things system-wide. And since that's more of a politics / societal view rather than something related to having kids, I figured I'd put this here.

There are currently 55 elementary schools in APS. I think it's interesting to look at the high and low ranks for the data we have. The big note on all this is APS is only counting students in their system (including charter schools). Kids who go to private school, are home schooled, etc. do not show up in these numbers at all. That would be really helpful data to get a full picture, but we don't have it.

Here we go:

Total Student Population
1. Morris Brandon (West Buckhead) - 1,213
2. Sarah Smith (North Buckhead) - 1,089
3. Warren Jackson (Northwest Buckhead) - 862
4. Morningside - 781
5. Deerwood Academy (Ben Hill) - 695
6. Garden Hills - 692
7. Thomas H. Slater (University/Pryor) - 643
8. John Wesley Dobbs (Brown's Mill) - 628
9. E. Rivers (South Buckhead) - 618
10. M. Agnes Jones (AU Center / West End) - 616

46. Cleveland Avenue - 298
47. Walter F. White (Grove Park) - 295
48. Capitol View - 267
49. Carter G. Woodson (Grove Park) - 260
50. Burgess-Peterson (East Atlanta) - 247
51. West Manor - 243
52. Fred A. Toomer (Kirkwood) - 230
53. Alonzo Herndon (Washington Park) - 221
54. Beecher Hills - 220
55. Benteen - 208

My initial take on that - you really see what effect a "good school" has in attracting families to a neighborhood. I'd call six of the top 10 population districts magnets and the other four legacy high-population districts. The districts that have the out-sized populations also have split campuses, so in effect there's more than one "school" represented in those numbers. It's still a heck of a lot of kids up in Buckhead.

Then there are the bottom 10, which I'm sure you notice includes East Atlanta and Kirkwood. Any sort of closer examination would show the school-age population growing in both of those neighborhoods and the growth projections are what the advocates of BPA and focusing on for good reason. BPA and Toomer are also among the geographically smaller elementary zones in APS. But in times of consolidation, it can't be good to be in the bottom 10. I would guess many of the others have seen public housing reform reduce their populations without much revitalization boost to bring it back up. Also note that Whitefooord is No. 45 with 305 students and East Lake No. 42 with 354.

Total Enrollment
1. Morris Brandon (West Buckhead) - 1,190
2. Sarah Smith (North Buckhead) - 1,080
3. Warren Jackson (Northwest Buckhead) - 944
4. Morningside - 768
5. Garden Hills - 693
6. E. Rivers (South Buckhead) - 639
7. Deerwood Academy (Ben Hill) - 632
8. Fickett (Campbellton Rd / Cascade) - 604
9. Mary Lin (Inman / Candler) - 594
10. M. Agnes Jones (AU Center / West End) - 574

46. Burgess-Peterson (East Atlanta) - 260
47. Whitefooord (Edgewood) - 305
48. Walter F. White (Grove Park) - 239
49. Capitol View - 231
50. Alonzo Herndon (Washington Park) - 226
51. East Lake - 204
52. Fred A. Toomer (Kirkwood) - 199
55. Benteen - 188

Similar deal there, but you can see how the "good" schools rise because students who live there go there (which is why they live there) and in the case of Jackson there's significantly more kids who go there than live in the district while a place like Deerwood drops because a significant number of students who live there go someplace else. Interesting that Fickett over around Campbellton/Cascade out-draws its population by 30 students. Mary Lin also jumps into the top 10, but it has just 8 more students going there than live there.

On the bottom end, you can see BPA moves from 50th in total district population to 46th in enrollment. That's a real positive since it shows a net inflow of kids, which you could say is the mark of a good school. The number is better than the 13 kids represented in the total enrollment numbers as I'll get to next. Meanwhile - the numbers do not make Toomer or East Lake look very good. Lots of kids who live there choosing to go elsewhere; not all that many who live elsewhere choosing to come to those schools.

Charter School Take Rate - Percentage of students residing in the district who go to a charter / non-traditional APS school
1. Parkside (Grant Park) - 52.71%
2. East Lake - 47.18%
3. Hope (Old Fourth Ward) - 33.76%
4. Burgess-Peterson (East Atlanta) - 28.74%
5. Ed. S. Cook (Reynoldstown / North Grant Park / Cabbagetown) - 27.73%
6. D.H. Stanton (Peoplestown / Grant Park / Ormewood Park) - 24.46%
7. Toomer (Kirkwood) - 20.87%
8. Whitefoord (Edgewood) - 18.69%
9. Walter F. White (Grove Park) - 18.64%
10. Mary Mcleod Bethune (Vine City) - 15.98%

46. Morningside - 2.69%
47. Bolton Academy (Faux West Buckhead) - 2.65%
48. Mary Lin (Inman / Candler) - 2.56%
49. George A Towns (Fairburn / Carroll Heights) - 2.51%
50. E. Rivers (South Buckhead) - 1.29%
51. Springdale Park (Midtown / Poncey Highland) - 1.10%
52. Garden Hills - 0.58%
53. Morris Brandon (West Buckhead) - 0.33%
54. Warren T. Jackson (Northwest Buckhead) - 0.23%
55. Sarah Smith (North Buckhead) - 0.18%

Around here, it's important to consider the impact charter schools have on what I call the "take rate" of a local school (what percentage of kids who live in a place go to that place's school). It's not hard to see that the existence of Drew, NCS and Wesley are huge factors in the dynamic here. I think it would be a fair statement to say that the idea of improving / turning around public schools (ala Morningside, Springdale Park, Mary Lin) has in large measure been replaced by the idea of getting out of regular public schools and into charter schools in our little corner of the city.

So the numbers here really speak for themselves.

District Take Rate - Percentage of students who live in the district and go to the district school
1. Sarah Smith (North Buckhead) - 97.80%
2. Garden Hills - 97.11%
3. Morningside - 96.41%
4. Springdale Park (Midtown / Poncey Highland) - 96.32%
5. Mary Lin (Inman / Candler) - 95.56%
6. Warren Jackson (Northwest Buckhead) - 94.66%
7. E. Rivers (South Buckhead) - 94.34%
8. Bolton Academy (Faux West Buckhead) - 93.16%
9. Morris Brandon (West Buckhead) - 91.92%
10. George A Towns (Fairburn / Carroll Heights) - 86.35%

46. Mary Mcleoud Bethune (Vine City) - 68.26%
47. Burgess-Peterson (East Atlanta) - 65.99%
48. Toomer (Kirkwood) - 65.65%
49. Bazoline Usher (Collier Heights) - 63.81%
50. Walter White (Grove Park) - 63.39%
51. D.H. Stanton (Peoplestown / Grant Park / Ormewood Park) - 58.60%
52. Hope (Old Fourth Ward) - 54.06%
53. Ed. S. Cook (Reynoldstown / North Grant Park / Cabbagetown) - 53.49%
54. East Lake - 48.02%
55. Parkside - 43.50%

Again you can see where families move for the schools. I would really love to know what percentage of all kids living in those districts go to public schools.

On the bottom these numbers are why you have to take charter schools into consideration. As you'll see below, Parkside may have the fewest district kids attending there (because of NCS, Wesley and Drew), but it also draws the most kids from other districts. Similar dynamic on a smaller scale for BPA.

Non-District Enrollment - Percentage of students enrolled who do not live in the district
1. Parkside (Grant Park) - 47.15%
2. Beecher Hills - 46.08%
3. Centennial Place (West Midtown / Downtown) - 40.13%
4. West Manor (West Atlanta) - 39.10%
5. Carter G. Woodson (Grove Park) - 38.53%
6. Burgess-Peterson (East Atlanta) - 37.31%
7. Peyton Forest - 30.60%
8. Alonzo Herndon (Washington Park) - 24.34%
9. Toomer (Kirkwood) - 24.12%
10. Cleveland Avenue - 23.61%

46. Bazoline Usher (Collier Heights) - 8.13%
47. Hope (Old Fourth Ward) - 7.57%
48. Perkerson (Lakewood) - 7.00%
49. Morris Brandon (West Buckhead) - 6.30%
50. Mary Lin (Inman / Candler) - 5.72%
51. Continental Colony (Greenbrier) - 4.83%
52. Springdale Park (Midtown / Poncey Highland) - 3.85%
53. Garden Hills - 3.03%
54. Morningside - 1.95%
55. Sarah Smith (North Buckhead) - 1.39%

Interesting stuff there. Parkside, which sends more than half of its residents to charter schools replaces most of those kids (292 out, 215 in) with kids coming in from other districts. 49 of those kids are from outside of APS altogether and the majority of the rest come from Stanton, Cook and Thomasville Heights. So Grant Park has a very successful charter school and has also turned the regular elementary school into a magnet. My assumption is schools that draw a big percentage of kids from out of the district are comparably good (from where the kids are coming from) but not full (or there would be no room for transfers). That's a good Top 10 list to see BPA on, and 37% is up there.

It looks like the bottom 10 consists of schools so crowded they don't take transfers ... and maybe ones nobody really wants to transfer to.


So yeah. Those are some numbers and some rankings. I find them to be interesting and though-provoking. Perhaps you might as well.

[The Lord of the Jungle]

Great stuff.  I think we all know the dynamics of what makes a good school, or what attracts, can be somewhat more complex than the straight-forward categories here, but I think the conclusions drawn here are pretty accurate.  I wonder how the Buckhead landscape might look if their public school renaissance had occured after the Charter movement had come on-line, or if theirs is simply a function of a greater sense of empowerment among the community.
 
Regardless, I'm assuming (hoping) that the demographers are drawing similar conclusions (though I wonder if Cap oughta just - as a concerned and engaged citizen - send this little bit of analysis on for comment) in which case they (or more appropriately those who govern the system) will be faced with something of a dilemma.  To what extent will they allow closings or boundary shifts to be controlled purely by population numbers?  And how will they address those shifts?  Even the raw analysis can't suggest the proper approach.  Clearly, Buckhead, VaHi, Morningside, etc. are overrun, and there are beaucoup schools on the southside that have capacity.  But redrawing boundaries would result in kids being shipped miles from their homes when a school exists nearby.  The other alternative is a movement toward closure and new build, which carries with it the appearance of inefficiency and the obvious implication of cost.
 
I told y'all planning was fun!

[Cap'n Ken]

Great stuff.  I think we all know the dynamics of what makes a good school, or what attracts, can be somewhat more complex than the straight-forward categories here, but I think the conclusions drawn here are pretty accurate.  I wonder how the Buckhead landscape might look if their public school renaissance had occured after the Charter movement had come on-line, or if theirs is simply a function of a greater sense of empowerment among the community.
 
Regardless, I'm assuming (hoping) that the demographers are drawing similar conclusions (though I wonder if Cap oughta just - as a concerned and engaged citizen - send this little bit of analysis on for comment) in which case they (or more appropriately those who govern the system) will be faced with something of a dilemma.  To what extent will they allow closings or boundary shifts to be controlled purely by population numbers?  And how will they address those shifts?  Even the raw analysis can't suggest the proper approach.  Clearly, Buckhead, VaHi, Morningside, etc. are overrun, and there are beaucoup schools on the southside that have capacity.  But redrawing boundaries would result in kids being shipped miles from their homes when a school exists nearby.  The other alternative is a movement toward closure and new build, which carries with it the appearance of inefficiency and the obvious implication of cost.
 
I told y'all planning was fun!

I have no clue what if any conclusions can be drawn from this. I just love that they provided so much data - I had to piece together things that seemed interesting or significant. And, hey, it looks like people with money also have public schools they like. Didn't see that one coming ...

The Parkside dynamic is the one that I'd really like to see more of a look at. There's an indication there of how charter schools have become a significant force in reviving public education, but the fact that Parkside is now drawing kids in from surrounding zones (and out of the district, apparently) is pretty interesting. Grant Park is a lot wealthier and more stable than it was when NCS opened, so naturally Parkside would also see a rise in wealthier and more stable students (especially with NCS full up). So a school that by one measure has been really hit hard by the charter school - as advocates of traditional public schools might see it - is actually thriving as evidenced by the huge number of kids from other neighborhoods choosing it.

[The Lord of the Jungle]

And no small part is parental involvement.  If you look at Parkside's FB food, they're hardcore organized.  Whether that's cause, effect, or somewhere in between is a subject for debate.
 
So, is this thread just going to be you and me?  No other number geeks in the crowd?

[T@B]

I'm lurking and reading but I have NO TIME for a thoughtful response - there is baking, cleaning, wrapping, etc. to do!!!  It's crunch time!!

[SteveD]

I find it interesting but I don't have anything meaningful to add (not that that's ever stopped me from posting before).

I'm frankly surprised to see that the total student population for B-P's area is only 247.  That seems hard to believe.  It seems like we have 1/10th of that on Braeburn Drive alone.

[Cap'n Ken]

And no small part is parental involvement.  If you look at Parkside's FB food, they're hardcore organized.  Whether that's cause, effect, or somewhere in between is a subject for debate.
 
So, is this thread just going to be you and me?  No other number geeks in the crowd?

And that's a fascinating debate that could be had. Me, I'm a cynical and simple-minded bastard - I think when you have a certain level of affluence in a neighborhood (and around here that largely means educated professionals moving in and probably displacing less-educated working-class and poverty-class people) "good schools" follow. I think there is definitely a critical mass factor at play in transitioning neighborhoods like ours - you reach a point where enough of the less-educated people are driven out that few objections remain for the educated people. And from there I think it can really snowball and it's Katie bar the door on the Volvo crowd.

So from that I'd make assumptions like Sarah Smith or predecesor schools up there have always been "good" because white flight didn't happen a lot up there. Likewise a Morningside. And I'd say a Mary Lin or a SPARK is "good" now because neighborhood demographics have changed and the area is full of educated professionals. Sure, they are involved in the school and all that, but I think it's a Freakonomics sort of thing - the school isn't good because they are involved; they are involved because they are the kind of people who would be involved - and the kind whose presence makes a school "good".

And I think all of the above is relevant because if the model is now "I like the charter school choices I'm eligible for here", that changes things quite a bit when you're talking about a neighborhood school. We're still living in this area because we are comfortable with the choices (plural) we have, not because we look at a specific elementary/middle/high path and deem that acceptable. If what we were faced with was living in East Atlanta = Burgess/Coan/Jackson I don't think we'd see that as acceptable, and if all we could do was move to a specific other school district I think we would have done that (or accepted private school as the right choice).

I don't know ultimately if that is better or worse for BPA than not having charter choices around here. There are 71 kids who live in East Atlanta and go to charter schools. Let's say that's 45 families with siblings factored in. If you figure 35 of those families might move away without the charter option, that's a not-insignificant impact for the neighborhood. But, of course, if you had 71 more charter-type kids at BPA that would have a huge impact. The question would be how long would it take to attract those 71 kids without the charter schools generally making the area more attractive to families and driving momentum.

[Cap'n Ken]

So, is this thread just going to be you and me?  No other number geeks in the crowd?

Nope ... just me.

[The Lord of the Jungle]

So, is this thread just going to be you and me?  No other number geeks in the crowd?

Nope ... just me.

Man, if you want a good time, head on over to Big Tent.  There's an APS discussion board, and it's gone full crazy. Apparently no one outside of Buckhead and Morningside cares about education, Grady is overrun with thugs, and a secret cabal of Kirkwood realtors is contriving with the demographers to rezone more Mary Lin kids into the Jackson feeder in order to improve property values (I shit you not).  Fun stuff.

[Cap'n Ken]

So, is this thread just going to be you and me?  No other number geeks in the crowd?

Nope ... just me.

Man, if you want a good time, head on over to Big Tent.  There's an APS discussion board, and it's gone full crazy. Apparently no one outside of Buckhead and Morningside cares about education, Grady is overrun with thugs, and a secret cabal of Kirkwood realtors is contriving with the demographers to rezone more Mary Lin kids into the Jackson feeder in order to improve property values (I shit you not).  Fun stuff.

See, that's the thing - I know anybody who talks APS and education here (should they choose to), isn't batshit crazy. I see that as a good thing.

[BarHeel]

So, is this thread just going to be you and me?  No other number geeks in the crowd?

Nope ... just me.

Man, if you want a good time, head on over to Big Tent.  There's an APS discussion board, and it's gone full crazy. Apparently no one outside of Buckhead and Morningside cares about education, Grady is overrun with thugs, and a secret cabal of Kirkwood realtors is contriving with the demographers to rezone more Mary Lin kids into the Jackson feeder in order to improve property values (I shit you not).  Fun stuff.

Wow. All news to me. Apparently I need to get out more often.

[The Lord of the Jungle]

So, is this thread just going to be you and me?  No other number geeks in the crowd?

Nope ... just me.

Man, if you want a good time, head on over to Big Tent.  There's an APS discussion board, and it's gone full crazy. Apparently no one outside of Buckhead and Morningside cares about education, Grady is overrun with thugs, and a secret cabal of Kirkwood realtors is contriving with the demographers to rezone more Mary Lin kids into the Jackson feeder in order to improve property values (I shit you not).  Fun stuff.

Wow. All news to me. Apparently I need to get out more often.

On the contrary, I think you're likely getting out plenty, and it's some other folks need to see the outside of their bunkers every so often.

[BarHeel]

So, is this thread just going to be you and me?  No other number geeks in the crowd?

Nope ... just me.

Man, if you want a good time, head on over to Big Tent.  There's an APS discussion board, and it's gone full crazy. Apparently no one outside of Buckhead and Morningside cares about education, Grady is overrun with thugs, and a secret cabal of Kirkwood realtors is contriving with the demographers to rezone more Mary Lin kids into the Jackson feeder in order to improve property values (I shit you not).  Fun stuff.

Wow. All news to me. Apparently I need to get out more often.

On the contrary, I think you're likely getting out plenty, and it's some other folks need to see the outside of their bunkers every so often.

Well I mean I understand that people get a bit overwrought when it's their kid, but jeez, folks; keep your shit together for Pete's sake. Although in fairness, everyone knows that the realtors have been secretly running Kirkwood for years...

[bestPBRever]

So, is this thread just going to be you and me?  No other number geeks in the crowd?

Nope ... just me.

Man, if you want a good time, head on over to Big Tent.  There's an APS discussion board, and it's gone full crazy. Apparently no one outside of Buckhead and Morningside cares about education, Grady is overrun with thugs, and a secret cabal of Kirkwood realtors is contriving with the demographers to rezone more Mary Lin kids into the Jackson feeder in order to improve property values (I shit you not).  Fun stuff.

Wow. All news to me. Apparently I need to get out more often.

On the contrary, I think you're likely getting out plenty, and it's some other folks need to see the outside of their bunkers every so often.

Well I mean I understand that people get a bit overwrought when it's their kid, but jeez, folks; keep your shit together for Pete's sake. Although in fairness, everyone knows that the realtors have been secretly running Kirkwood for years...

why am i envisioning a scene from The Warriors.... realtors come out to plaaayaaay!

[BarHeel]

So, is this thread just going to be you and me?  No other number geeks in the crowd?

Nope ... just me.

Man, if you want a good time, head on over to Big Tent.  There's an APS discussion board, and it's gone full crazy. Apparently no one outside of Buckhead and Morningside cares about education, Grady is overrun with thugs, and a secret cabal of Kirkwood realtors is contriving with the demographers to rezone more Mary Lin kids into the Jackson feeder in order to improve property values (I shit you not).  Fun stuff.

Wow. All news to me. Apparently I need to get out more often.

On the contrary, I think you're likely getting out plenty, and it's some other folks need to see the outside of their bunkers every so often.

Well I mean I understand that people get a bit overwrought when it's their kid, but jeez, folks; keep your shit together for Pete's sake. Although in fairness, everyone knows that the realtors have been secretly running Kirkwood for years...

why am i envisioning a scene from The Warriors.... realtors come out to plaaayaaay!

I was actually seeing something more like Homer Simpson and the Stonecutters. But the Warriors works too.